Authors: Saifur Rahman, Yonael Teklu, Avinash Kumar, Zheyu Zhang
Conference: Proceedings of the 22nd Annual Conference on Systems Engineering Research CSER2025
DOI:
Abstract: Global warming caused by greenhouse gas releases (GHG) into the atmosphere is now considered an existential threat to society and biodiversity. To limit global warming, the United States and many other countries have submitted a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for the reduction of their net GHG emissions by 2030. The transportation sector, responsible for over a third of GHG emissions in the US, is a major target for reducing carbon intensity. The analysis presented in this paper highlights the challenges and opportunities to de-carbonize the economy through accelerated and large-scale deployment of zero-emission Electric Vehicles (EVs) in the next 10-25 years. The fact that an EV has no tailpipe emissions does not mean that the use of an EV is emission-free. The question needs to be asked – where is the electricity to charge the EV coming from? If an EV is charged by electricity from a coal-fired power plant, then the EV is not emission-free. This paper reports on the number of EVs based on EV registration data, and electricity generation mix in all 50 US states and the District of Columbia. A state’s carbon reduction credential from the transportation sector cannot be judged alone by the number of EVs on the road, we need to also know the carbon intensity from electricity generation in the state. The discussion in this paper highlights how states can improve their carbon intensity credentials not just by bringing more EVs onto the roads, but also by bringing low or no-carbon electricity into their electricity generation mix.
